The Office for National Statistics has been working on a set of 2006-based subnational population projections. In April 2008 a consultation exercise with local authorities and PCTs ended. Feedback was obtained from regional organisations on issues such as migration.
Jonathan Swan, Head of Subnational Projections Ethnic and Quarterly Estimates (SPEaQE) at the Office for National Statistics, issued the following update on his team’s progress:
“The consultation on subnational population projections concluded on 17 April. Responses were received from 61 organisations, though some of these were responses from regional organisations or county councils, so they covered several LA areas.
“The Office for National Statistics Centre for Demography has convened a consultation review panel to consider Part 1 responses on initial migration assumptions. The conclusions from this panel will be built into final projections which will be publishing in June. An exact date is to be confirmed.
“Following publication we will be writing to all respondents to Part 1, with details on the consultation review panel’s decisions.
“We are also examining responses to the outputs consultation, which we will use to guide us in the tables we will be publishing in June. Later in the year we aim to publish a short paper summarising responses to this part of the consultation, along with any conclusions we reached.
“In due course we will also look at responses to the variants consultation in Part 2. Later in the year we aim to publish a paper summarising these responses, setting out our conclusions, and indicating what work we may be taking forward as a result of this consultation on variants.
“We would like to take this opportunity to thank all those that responded to the consultation.”
The main purpose of the subnational projections is to provide a set of consistent, trend-based figures about the future population, which can be used as the basis for the allocation of resources and to inform local planning. They provide a guide to the possible size and distribution of the population by area, age and sex in future years, assuming the continuation of current trends. The projections will cover the 25 years from 2006 to 2031.